01/30/08

Predictions

I once thought the GOP nomination would end at the convention.  Depending on how Super Tuesday goes I guess that could still be the case; however, it seems unlikely now.  Giuliani is out, and will endorse McCain - which is as absurd as Hunter endorsing Huckabee or the prediction that Huckabee supporters would break for Romney if Huckabee dropped out.  I still can't wrap my head around that last one.  Huckabee supporters breaking for McCain seems more likely to me.  Even so, the reverse is certainly not true - Romney supporters wouldn't break for Huckabee if Romney dropped out - I think.  I wouldn't anyway.  Yet, I'm told Huckabee is taking votes away from Romney.  Crazy.

I once thought the 2008 presidential election would be thrown into the House of Representatives.  If the country is as divided as advertised and if the candidates can rally their voters, this may still happen.  Even if voter turnout is the lowest in American history it could still happen and that would be all kind of stupid. 

That brings me to my brand new prediction.

If Hillary and McCain are the candidates, voter turnout will hit a record low.  Both have high negatives with the base of their respective parties.  In effect, we'd be voting against one or the other, and that's no way to cast a ballot.  Despite what the national polls say at the moment McCain simply cannot win that sort of election.  The momentum would clearly be on the side of the Democrats.  Blame Bush, blame the war, blame McCain's Maverickism, blame whatever.  The fact is, Democrats and Conservatives would be voting against McCain.  Or staying home.

So, McCain is now the likely Republican candidate - that's what I'm being told.  We'll see if Limbaugh unloads in a few minutes - more so than he has already.  Then we'll see if that even matters.  I tend to agree with Allah at HotAir:  Limbaugh doesn't have much left except to explicitly endorse Romney, but he's already done that by the process of elimination.  If that fails, if McCain wins, if Medved is correct in saying talk radio is pretty much irrelevant then why is Medved still doing talk radio?  There can't be any satisfaction in doing something you know to be meaningless.

Limbaugh's show is starting now.  He starts it in his usual upbeat style.  "This is no time to quit."  Indeed.  Even if we lose the primaries, and then the general there's always the next one.  There's always time to reassert what we know to be true.  We lick our wounds, find our voices, and jump back into the fray.  As we've always done.

To steal a thought from Bryan at HotAir, a little pick-me-up - using the quote on his post though.



This does prove one thing - yet again.  Limbaugh, and the rest don't need a Democrat in the White House to make a living.

Posted by: Jason at 01:14 PM in Conservoluted | No Comments | Add Comment
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